new quarter tuesday, page-159

Been tracking the yield differentials between Fed Funds and various Bond durations, trying to get some sort of model together.

At this stage it looks like another Fed Fund down move in late April will narrow the gap a notch and maintain market smoothness with some upside of a few percent. The 3yr is moving up close to the Fed from below, 2yr is disconnecting from the lower duration Bonds, the rest are still below. Suggests another moderate down move in the next couple of months of 10+%.