a lot of pain for shorters today, page-8

Any bounce needs to be understood in the context of material conditions.

For example, is the GXY bounce in keeping with or contrary to the facts on the ground and future prospects? Is it like a goal against the run of play, or has the momentum of the game shifted?

The sector is rallying on the back of, among other things, news from China and India. GXY up 9.96%, PLS up 9.22%, ORE up 4.97%, LPD up 10.53% (and yes, I know they've all taken a battering of late).

I'm not saying GXY will be up another 10% on Monday. I think it will be up, but I would be pleasantly surprised if it continued to go up at such a cracking rate. Unless of course there's a big announcement.

The case against GXY's bounce being a dead cat bounce:

POSCO money arriving soon. SDV on track. SDV offtake deal on track. Good progress on JB. Good numbers coming out of Mt. C. Great half-year results.

Yes, the POSCO confirmation fizzed on the market. Yes, the half-year results didn't impact the SP right away. However, those things remain a material reality. They remain part of the case for GXY as a stock to hold long.

As sentiment shifts and buyers return to lithium, they will look at the best bets and the POSCO deal, the prospects of SDV, and the half-year results will encourage them towards GXY.