Running discussion on SP, page-10975

1000kt, should be well achievable by 2025 from current and funded producers.
SQM tells the market whatever suits them and often the market swallows it but it doesn’t mean it’s correct.

Greenbushes - 250-300kt
SQM - 180kt By 2020/21, not likely but I’m sure by 2025 they can manage it
MIN (+NMT) - 170 - 200kt, plenty of scope for future expansions
PLS - 120kt with stage 3 expansions likely
TAW - 85kt
AJM - 65kt
KDR - 50kt with plenty of expansion scope
GXY - 60kt plus James Bay
LAC - 50kt plenty of expansionary scope
ORE - 35kt but likely higher
NMX - 50kt plenty expansion potential
FMC - ?
POSCO - 25kt ++

I’m sure there are others I have missed.
Add all these up and you get between 1140 - 1220kt by 2025 from current producers or fully funded near term producers.

Then taking it one step further with the argument that these projects won’t all reach nameplate, already a decent buffer as per above figures but we can see easily another 50kt from PLS, easily another 50kt from Mt Holland, easily another 50kt from Wodgina, another 30kt+ from James Bay, another 50kt from LAC plus all the other I have missed out on might add another 100-200kt giving easy another 200kt to the above on the low side without any other market entrants.

Can’t see much of a shortage over the next 5 years, these guys will expand as demand dictates with a lot of this supply not yet spoken for.