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Running discussion on SP, page-10975

  1. 6,066 Posts.
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    1000kt, should be well achievable by 2025 from current and funded producers.
    SQM tells the market whatever suits them and often the market swallows it but it doesn’t mean it’s correct.

    Greenbushes - 250-300kt
    SQM - 180kt By 2020/21, not likely but I’m sure by 2025 they can manage it
    MIN (+NMT) - 170 - 200kt, plenty of scope for future expansions
    PLS - 120kt with stage 3 expansions likely
    TAW - 85kt
    AJM - 65kt
    KDR - 50kt with plenty of expansion scope
    GXY - 60kt plus James Bay
    LAC - 50kt plenty of expansionary scope
    ORE - 35kt but likely higher
    NMX - 50kt plenty expansion potential
    FMC - ?
    POSCO - 25kt ++

    I’m sure there are others I have missed.
    Add all these up and you get between 1140 - 1220kt by 2025 from current producers or fully funded near term producers.

    Then taking it one step further with the argument that these projects won’t all reach nameplate, already a decent buffer as per above figures but we can see easily another 50kt from PLS, easily another 50kt from Mt Holland, easily another 50kt from Wodgina, another 30kt+ from James Bay, another 50kt from LAC plus all the other I have missed out on might add another 100-200kt giving easy another 200kt to the above on the low side without any other market entrants.

    Can’t see much of a shortage over the next 5 years, these guys will expand as demand dictates with a lot of this supply not yet spoken for.
    Last edited by El Jefe: 09/09/18
 
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