Fundamental Value, page-76

Hi everyone,

Here's my back of the envelope calculations and assumptions for the Buffalo Oil project and Dorado Oil discovery.

The Buffalo development costs are based on the info provided by CVN in their presentation ($150m cap ex, $100m P.A x 4yrs op ex).

Some other assumptions (mainly with Dorado) are just a ball park guess based on my limited knowledge, but I would be interested in what others have come up with and the figures they have used.

Everything is in USD except the value per CVN share price which I've converted to AUD.

This is obviously very back of the envelope figures, DYOR.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	Dorado Oil
1		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
2	Recoverable oil	82,000,000	171,000,000	320,000,000
3	Revenue $65/b	$5,330,000,000	$11,115,000,000	$20,800,000,000
4	Cap ex	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000
5	Op ex $20/b	-$1,640,000,000	-$3,420,000,000	-$6,400,000,000
6	Gross profit	$3,190,000,000	$7,195,000,000	$13,900,000,000
7	Tax - 40%	-$1,276,000,000	-$2,878,000,000	-$5,560,000,000
8	NPAT	$1,914,000,000	$4,317,000,000	$8,340,000,000
9	CVN share (20%)	$382,800,000	$863,400,000	$1,668,000,000
10	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.449	$1.012	$1.955
11
12
13	Buffalo Oil
14		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
15	Recoverable oil	15,300,000	31,100,000	47,800,000
16	Revenue	$994,500,000	$2,021,500,000	$3,107,000,000
17	Cap ex	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000
18	Op ex	-$400,000,000	-$400,000,000	-$400,000,000
19	Gross profit	$444,500,000	$1,471,500,000	$2,557,000,000
20	Tax - 40%	-$177,800,000	-$588,600,000	-$1,022,800,000
21	NPAT	$266,700,000	$882,900,000	$1,534,200,000
22	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.31	$1.03	$1.80
23
24	Assumptions
25	Shares on issue	1,200,000,000
26	Oil price	$65.00
27	Dorado production costs	$20.00
28	1 AUD = $1.4065 USD	$1.407