I am happy to see you had an ok day and made it through the week without testing the 200 day. As for us here, the verbal plunge protection goon squad and CPI miss helped out. The games are predicated on the integrity of the core. Sometimes I have to fell unsound trees when they are too unsafe to climb. You can't see the damage on the outside. There is all kinds of sounding and posturing and measuring. There is cutting and waiting and a bit of stress. Sometimes this market feels that way too.
The profile pre-market looks neutral, but that will depend on news flow and week's end psychology. There is now more support at 2900 and a profile beneath it that shows confidence. There is still resistance at 2910 as well as conventional resistance at 2915. If bulls were to stay over SPY R3, which on the SPX is roughly equivalent to SPX weekly resistance at 2910, they would be free to rally. But since it's a Friday they would have to have some solid expectations for next week if they are going to hold that level. If they were not able to hold over 2910, a safer bet would be to hold somewhere around 2905. A surprise in the form of news that caused a sustained drop below 2900 would be very interesting - unless I am missing something, they would do well to avoid that scenario today. ES futures are changing over to the Dec contract. SPX short term view.
Thursday's Core CPI was cooler than expected at 0.1% and headline CPI came in as expected at 0.2%. ZNZ8 treasury futures were up a bit intraday on Thursday but ended flattish. This rising yields this week may show that participants are not fazed and believe the Fed's rate trajectory is intact despite the blips. As for ES futures and the stock market participants of late, they will exploit anything they can to live in the moment. The DXY responded by going lower and has been flirting with the 100 day moving average since. As for your caution pre-report, @roberter1...you know what they say...better to be out and wish you were in than in and wish you were out. Or something like that.
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