I told grandma to hold. Is this stupid?, page-8

I get the return based on dividend argument.

What should be factored in is the spend on remediation payments to clients, extra costs of administration and development over next few years and potential legal costs plus potential class action payments.

Ignoring the last potential cost, it would be reasonable to assume that Bsed 0n their own numbers AMP is going to spend some $600m extra over the next 3 years from a declining revenue base. The shareholders have to pay this $200m per year. If you deduct this off the return and allow the fact the shares are $3.16 not $3, then you get a dividend return closer to 6.5% for the next few years. Who knows what the return will be then after businesses have been sold.

6.5% is still a decent return but there is downside risk as well as upside.