why couldnt it happen here, page-39

Hi Shane

I read that link

This part ..........

These prices ...."cannot be explained by fundamental economic factors such as population growth and income, The Australian Financial Review reports."





And nor should they be.

You cant pick,choose and use only certain economic factors to determine the outcome of house prices.

House prices have only part correlation with population growth and income, yet these well to do economic misfits base their whole analysis on these two aspects and call them the main economic fundamentals of house prices.

Well based on their analysis house prices are wrong....yet they are "fact".

High or low really doesn't matter....they are what they are.

I bought a house in SA in 1998 for $88,000.

I was told then that it was WAY overpriced.

10 years later its worth $350,000.

So is it still overpriced or is it what the market wishes to pay for it?





You have....

Population growth
Immigration
Migration
Interest rates
housing supplies
Age segments and location
Birth rates
Inflation
Deflation
Employment opportunities
Unemployment rates
Investors
Buyers
Sellers
Agents
Auctions
Money rates
Weather patterns
Social interests
Infrastructure
Needs and wants
media hype
Advertising
World economies and events
Wars
Trades
GST
National deficit
credit
deaths
internet
Food
health
Hospitals
Schools
child care
loans
market sentiment
smoke and mirrors
Sharemarkets
Opinions




and 100 or so other things which determine house prices.

The main fundamentals to house prices are actually nothing to do with economic fundamentals whatsoever.

Market sentiment is number one.


Rates have gone up 3% (12 rises) at .25% over 3 years

So on a $300k loan

$3000 extra year x 3 years (extra $9000)

Not a lot when u look at it that way.

The house goes up in value by just 1%p.a for the 3 years and your in front so to speak.



So will everyone stop buying houses and sell.

And if so where will they all live??

After all we have a housing shortage.

I guess they will be renting back from the investors that take a long term look at the housing market.

Classic.