BG,
I took my estimate of success probability from this document which is not specific for the Bass Straight:
http://www.ret.gov.au/Documents/acreagereleases/2006/HTML/Overview/contents_7.html#tbl5
see table five - gives success rate for offshore wildcat wells in 2004 - which is the most recent I could find. It showed 1 wildcat well is successful for every 2.5 drilled (ie ratio 1:2.5). This is most likely to be applicable though does not account for further improvements in seismic accuracy since 2004.
It is the best indicator I could find. If you have more up to date information on offshore success rates, specifically in the Bass Straight, I would appreciate you posting it so I can update the predictions on which I based this investment.
The value equation becomes marginal at about a success rate of 5-7% by my estimates so there is a fair bit of room for error while still having this being a worthwhile (short-term) investment. IF this should come off, or we get a decent rise prior to spud I will likely plough the profits/remaining capital in to TDO, which I see you are already following.
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