speke south 1 spuds, page-33

The seismics identified a few targets, of which this and Tara were the best. BAS negotiated the deal with Apache and at this stage remain the majority stakeholder until this well is completed and tested, and would not have accepted a substandard target selection from Apache.

Note that the board of this company are not petroleum, or even offshore drilling, newbies - look at their profiles - it really blew me away - not just a few ex-shell engineers, but most of them were the most senior people in Shell (NB a much larger company than Apache) in the country in their fields prior to Joining BAS. They would not be giving away 60% of the project to Apache for a dud drill, remember that BAS had the tenement and Apache had to impress these very experienced and successful petroleum experts with the deal to get their stake.

I would think the success probability is likely to be as good as other recent offshore wildcats at about 40% given it is based on 3D seismics. This still doesn't alter the fact that you are more likely to lose than make money, just that the upside if there is oil here is massive, many multiples of the current SP, and the downside is limitted to about half of the current SP.