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$4.33 bega cheese limited

BGA chart, page-6

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Saragian

4,769 Posts.

6121

24/09/18

15:31

Post #: 35803397
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Originally posted by sabine ↑

Hello all holders here and anyone else

I am not currently invested in Bega but have been doing some research ( also into A2m and some other dairy companies) as I wanted to get a bit of a feel for the sector. ..

I am now sharing in case it’s useful to other potential investors but mainly because I am hoping for objective feedback/clarification from those following the company..

Cheers

Price:
With respect to A2M it seems it may be a long time (if ever?) before it drops back to some of its technical gaps whereas at Bega, seeing as the price has dropped below the $7.10 of the recent SPP it may be good value, especially as trading close to the $6.68 TA support line charted above.
But I am concerned about the imminent court case with Fonterra and recent propensity for other legal strife .
If the Fonterra case judgement goes against Bega what would the short term response be?
( if and when you can spare time @Saragian I would appreciate your TA perspective please )

Investors :
Coopers investments which bought in last year comes across as a successful and dynamic fund manager and has recently increased its’ position to 9.52% .
There are other institutions roosting with solid positions - Perpetual with around 13% and Macquarie
(As far as Coopers goes here are some recent reports on what it looks for;
http://www.cooperinvestors.com/pdf/Reports/BrunswickFund/BrunswickFundQJun18.pdf
http://www.cooperinvestors.com/pdf/Reports/BrunswickFund/BrunswickFundQMar18.pdf
The fact that seemingly with thorough understanding of the company including current legal proceedings they have increased their position is encouraging .)

Financials/potential :
Last FY Bega performed well, funding a new dairy factory (expected to add $20m EBITDA) plus earning decent profit.
Energetically it seems growth- oriented; buying a Queensland peanut company and Vegemite etc last year, and now now looking to acquire Capilano Honey ?

Management :
Executive Chairman, Barry Irvin has been closely involved since 1989 .
I gather Bega got going after he was called home (in his early 20’s) from a career in banking to become involved in the family farming business (Bega had expanded enough to go public around 20 years later. (Launched on ASX August 2011 at S1.84.)
He has been in the game 30 years and has some commendable successes under his belt .
http://www.investing.businessweek.w...n.asp?personId=32632854&privcapId=5440962
https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2017/11/01/how-bega-bought-vegemite

Who is he? Apart from being clearly patriarchal and with an eye to the future .
( https://www.stockandland.com.au/story/4990701/leadership-comes-from-service-begas-barry-irvin/
Is an interesting speech (reported 16.10.2017 ) especially in the light of the reasons cited for the resignation of director Richard Platts 4.09.17 six weeks earlier ....
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSTYO5Am8zReZovB4ke92GA==
- maybe some subtext in there ?

If he is the ‘backbone’ of the company is there any hint of what kind of succession plan is in place ?

Also with regards management; the new CEO Paul von Heerwaarden :
There have been a lot of changes since he was promoted Feb 1, 2017.
......most of them seem to be excellent expansive strategies but I am curious about the amount of associated litigation.

Legal and other issues:
Can anyone tell me if there has there been any developments with regards legal proceedings with Fonterra over brand name ‘theft’ by Bega (despite long standing exclusivity arrangements) . ‘https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/f...r/news-story/90a04c5866d683bae9dde49c4bfbf0cd
This was all supposed to be being heard ‘mid’ year .
If the proceedings go against Bega it seems it will not be good for the share price despite the confidence of those participating in SPP.

With reference to legal issues there’s also this :https://www.********.au/2017/10/27/has-bega-cheese-limited-just-created-an-expensive-mess/ - ie litigation last year after it bought Vegemite/peanut butter from Kraft.
And the current Capilano Honey ‘bidding war’ with Chinese company https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...y/news-story/306c52289944cf8f9257a6e4c6146ccb...
..is interesting when they want to expand into China. Might this earn them a negative reputation?
..Plus scandals over the honey disallowed/business/consumer-affair...ed-of-selling-fake-honey-20180827-p5000u.html.

Blackmores and Bega
Also I would appreciate some more information on the connection( if any ) with Blackmores in regards Bega/Tatura’s current ‘nutritionals’ research ...there was originally to be a two year JV between these companies but this was scrapped and reformatted as a “customiser/ supplier” connection after a spectacular fail of the JV infant formula launch into China?
https://www.*.com.au/the-blackmores-and-bega-infant-formula-push-into-china-isnt-working-2016-10
Specifically in regards the nutritional research currently being undertaken, do people feel Tatura is planning on allying with Blackmores more closely again in future or potentially going into competition with that company as it has done with Fonterra ?

‘Elite’ product offering?
Other information I am hoping for some help with is Bega’s presence/potential in the ‘elite ’ milk market ..
ie
-the jersey/guernsey A2 milkers
-organic offerings
-high protein offerings
-Grass fed/sunshine grazed milk , cream and butter and cheese (Vitamin K2 a demonstrated anti-aging nutrient requiring these conditions )
- other nutritional factors like night milking
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24243550
http://www.lullabymilk.com/

https://www.healthyvalleyorganics.com.au/health-education/vitamin-k2-the-french-paradox/
https://www.biohackerslab.com/ep18-kevin-kennedy/
Etc

Expand

Hello Sabine.....you subductive, orogenous person you.
Just having a peek at the BGA chart over my coffee and croissant.
The WEEKLY BAR chart above shows the price action from June '12 onwards and since the high of $8.13c. on (w/e) 24/12/15 any attempt to rally back above the linear regression line has been rejected. A triple top was also generated (red arrows). The DAILY BAR chart above shows the price action from Dec.'15 onwards with most of the recent price action whipsawing around the lower lr line.
$6.75c. is a significant (horizontal) support level and for a resumption of the PRIMARY up trend the BGA share price needs to break back above the lower lr line and there after a newer high above $8.15c.
You will note from the chart that the lower median line and lr warning line are almost one and the same........... very SOLID support trend line(s).
Cheers.

BGA Price at posting: $6.96 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $4.33		Change -0.020(0.46%)		Mkt cap ! $1.319B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.38	$4.39	$4.31	$1.301M	300.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3355	$4.33

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$4.35	439	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3355	4.330
2	479	4.320
3	2338	4.300
1	439	4.290
2	5439	4.280

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.350	439	1
4.360	439	1
4.370	4312	3
4.380	2453	2
4.390	439	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

BGA (ASX) Chart