Downside Risk

I wanted to pose a question to people here to get a true understanding of what the downside risk of Samo not coming in is.
I’ve seen a lot of shoot-from-the-hip comments such as, “Samo-1 is a free-hit”, zero-downside, 50% COS = massive chance of a good pay-off

I believe these are seriously dangerous claims with no support or actual reasoning behind them. The market knows that FAR is drilling a well. The market knows the prospect's risked reserves. Once  the market is updated on any change to these (e.g. by Far sticking a great big dirty hole through the middle of the thing, then logging it), the market will adjust the shareprice accordingly.

If we look at how the market has responded to the following two recent analogs

• a 15% COS duster – PCL down by half
• a 70% CoS – Dubious results on PS-3, may actually be deemed a success by way of Pg, but not a commercial success – CVN down by 1/3^rd

in both these recent examples the market has clearly priced in the negative results. What makes FAR so special that u don’t think it will happen to them?

So, moving on, I have two questions

• we have a 50% COS….but what do we think the likelihood of a commercial success actually is? I’ve seen a lot of Geo’s call a sniff of oil a success case, but nothing ever produced. Just look at PS-3 and its results to understand the difference between commercially viable success  vs geological chance of success
• Assuming that Samo -1 is not a commercial success (e.g. hydrocarbons found, but net pay just not there in sufficient quantity to justify development), where will we see the shareprice back-track to?