market forces and reality, page-7

Here u loud and clear Ant...

I NEVER over commit to any trade/investment... Probably means I'll never become filthy rich of one play... But also means I wont ever be whiped out by a single play.

I've been living and breathing global reports and data on this industry, and its players, everyday for months now... I think it looks promising... And will weather the storm and perhaps even surprise a few.

Weather changes quickly and I did remember to pack an umbrella in case of emergency.

Preso March '08

Slide 3 and 20...

Market Cap is approx. 250m (Diluted)

Worst Case (before becomes non-economic)
2mtpa * $200p/t = $400m/pa Revenue
(Costs $100p/t + $25 buffer + $5 Debt)
2mtpa * $70 = $140m/pa Profit

Best Case (may even be better)
3mtpa * $350p/t = 1,050m/pa Revenue
(Costs $100p/t + $25 buffer + $5 Debt)
3mtpa * $220p/t = 660m/pa Profit

Very Simple - But do detail DCF and it comes up about same.