A bit too optimistic Barg.....
EV sales 95% of all vehicles in 2019? There is no production capacity for that. (yet)
Also the lottery is avoided by buying or renting the plate from another person (not bribing an official):
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/29/world/asia/china-beijing-traffic-pollution.html
The mechanism itself is effective though. It facilitates the purchase of an EV and increases the cost of ICE vehicles.
I believe we will come to >95% EV share of new car sales. It just might take some more years. If I would have to guess I would put my money on 2027...
Lithium Demand surge, page-2699
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