Thanks Binwood I appreciate your friendly enquiry It's pre-tax, it was odd they didn't report a few little things with the super detailed announcement. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as to why.
That spreadsheet is a bit of an iceberg, 70% hidden cells to make it semi-presentable but the guts of it is a big gap in gross profit flowing through to EBITDA for each which is the base for NPV and IRR. You can check this for AVL with the undiscounted cashflow figures reported for each price assumption.
TMT's separate reporting of post tax numbers is then a further discount to about $127m p.a. post tax cash from memory over 13 years to get $850m NPV.
The numbers are right. EV/NPV I haven't included because I believe in subtlety and letting people draw their own conclusions rather than leading them. I won't be able to resist some sphere charts if Clooney continues with mis-scaled visual representations though!
Many defensive reactions to the TMT PFS, all of a sudden the CAPEX numbers can't be right because AVL printed a bigger number. I look at it exactly the other way around. Mokopane & Maracas didn't cost half a billion dollars so why would AVL's? Even with the base metals circuit and gas pipeline.
Scale is cheaper to build than adding different elements, this makes sense for all construction. It also delivers a better cash flow in this case as has been shown. It's a smart strategy, focus on spending up front money only on the highest returning assets. This works especially well when you are going from negative cash flow for the coming quarter to a +$50m 5B in Q1 '22. That will finance many expansions, pipelines and circuits if the ROI is acceptable (should be much improved including Ni and Cu)
I get Vince wanting to d&b his dream plant but I can see one or two things getting put back to post production to improve upfront economics.
Good luck Binwood. Don't believe the unwashed masses over respected independent consultants. All I do is numbers on the back of their great work and the numbers dont lie
It's pre-tax, it was odd they didn't report a few little things with the super detailed announcement. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as to why.
