Originally posted by setfire2thehive
trying to gauge what you're implying with these back of the napkin calcs.
if they're talking 250-300m for half the entire project (I.e selling carrier (non jorc) would mean a jorc compliant resource with a ss attached would be worth a percentage more.
regardless they would receiving 150-180m in cash (60%) (whIch is the entIre MC) and have Roche to themselves. (60% ownership)
selling off half the asset would potentially halve the costs to develop infrastructure under mutual agreement.
anyways it's always been my personal preference to see avz complete offtakes for seperate operating entities for both pegs. there's enough feed for a 40y LOM on either peg.
why not have 2x10mtpa plants operating. company's can work together to half infrastructure costs or in a hydroxy plant down track.
Anyways the SS for me has always been the most critical step in the project. holders and non holders had for the most part always agreed on grade and Size of resource. (never really align on implications but the general view waa its worth nothing unless you can get it out (true)
I feel that both holders and non holders have both been somewhat hesitant to average up/down or buy in at this stage as the hype potential is no longer there. the reality is it is worth f/all if its not profitable.
however, if it's commerially viable then there really isn't anything to argue about in terms of feasibility or NPV/EV. there will be weeks of nitpicking figures but mostly water under the bridge. ill note that almost all studies are conservative and usually increase on the positive side as the pfs/bfs/dfs rolls through.
regardless us retail is just the puppet. commercially positive results for a project of this capacity is green lights for the funds which drives movement retail just adds noise and volume.
i spoke with a manager from one of these funds. his words were. "everyone knows about avz, but there is alot of people hesitant right now. the general concencus is that it will be worth 0c or $1 in one years time."
after discussing the project in more depth he then went on to say "i think you know more about this than anyone in my office". which was very interesting comment that everyone who knew about them knows nothing about them.
I don't expect too much of the negativity to go away though because viability just concretes the threat it poses to current and future producers.
P.S I personally believe they're will be enough demand to cater for all the main lithium miners hence why I've held in the past and will almost certainly hold them in the future. just personally believe they're more upside in 2-5years here.
Best of luck, not that I think we'll need it.
SF2TH
I dont think other current or near term producers really care what the AVZ SP is nor do I think they spend time or effort in trying to control the AVZ SP
Do I think some of AVZ's biggest holders want the SP down... absolutely!
