rocket monday, page-6

Yes I have had some mixed signals for a bit.

US always seemed stronger than here.

As such I couldn't take a solid position.

With US put/call sentiment too extreme plus VXO etc, it seems that a minor new rally high as suggested by Mclaren is needed to freak out the bears.

It makes April 21/2 or even later a goood top date.

It is still my opinion that May will be the battle ground.

The "normal" scenario is for a May low but here it can be a major high.

Maclaren also makes a good picture of a comparison with 1969/70.

I sort of agree as I believe this is the one punch and a two punch to come, just as 1970 was bad but 1974 was worse.

So I am working on the idea that whatever comes now will be worse into 2013.

The main argument against me is that we are 8 years into this 17 year consolidation period and 8 years into the consolidation period from 1966 was of course 1974 which was a dozey.

For the bulls the best scenario is a weak April finish and a poor May.

For the bears a top into May(perhaps May 9) that continues down past the end of May suggests Oct/Nov and lower.

The odds suggest the former for the US at least but forget about any serious bull market for some years IMO.

In 10 years time when a good bull market is underway there will be few participants.