I had some free time in the office today and put together a graphic - inspiration from Otto Energy, which has a similar chart in their recent presentation. Otto presented on a market cap basis rather than economic value basis as I have done below. A few points:
- Limited to main oilers that I follow. Will expand later, if useful.
- EV calculated at 10/10/2018 market information with 30 June 2018 debt.
- BOEPD calculated as 12 month run rate to 30/06/2018.
- Bubble size indicates 2P reserves on boe basis from Company reserve statements made at 30 June 2018 (i.e both gas and oil)
- SXY and COE are the gas giants with the market pricing their reserves accordingly. COE also has significant near term production of c. 30 PJ in FY2020.
- Interesting to note that there is a clear valuation trend of the juniors modelled based production rates.
- I have added "CTP phase 1" (41 tj/d) and "CTP phase 2" (54 tj/d) to show where we will soon be (fingers crossed). Although we are mixing gas/oil valuations here, to me it indicates a value gap. Will derisk as we prove up PV and the commercial results of NGP?
Cheers.
CTP Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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