Barclays failed due to a rouge trader. Australian banks cannot fail in this way. As you point out though treasury makes half the profit for the bank and a rise in bond yeilds and a fall in the aussie makes for tresaury profits. That with a little more gouging a one off write down for the RC and a little cost cutting and in 2 years we will be looking at record profits again.
Apart from reinvest I haven't bought CBA since 2009 and I paid $26.00. Against my brokers advise mind you. Not to mention MQG at $20.
I'm not dumping cause the tax on profits would be greater than the loss of principle.
So roll on $60. is what I say. Buy and hold it from there and a few other financials and retire happy. If you can buy an Aussie bank with a grossed up 10% yield buy it. I will be big time. They are so heavily regulated they may as well be a bond.
If google bank or apple bank opened in martin place maybe I'd be worried about fintech but not yet and even then Amazon isn't working in Oz cause the cookie cutting doesn't cut it here. Maybe fintech won't either sure the kids will love it but the kids don't hold the wealth for at least 20 years.
Good luck.
CBA Price at posting:
$67.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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