Which of the potential price-drivers do you think is exerting an influence currently? If it is market anticipation of a positive settlement of the Applera litigation, what impact on the SP would you expect such an outcome to provide?
While I have regarded the outcome as reasonably predictable (given the two previous confidential - but apparently favourable - settlements), will the market accord it greater significance? Nothing is ever certain in legal matters and many prudent investors who like the core story may be waiting for this final hurdle to be cleared.
From my amateurish observations of market psychology over a number of years, the impact of uncertainty surrounding patent enforceability for emerging biotechs cannot be underestimated. For example, when Peptech's IP patents were disputed last year, it had an immediate negative impact on the SP and caused investor wariness for months afterwards.
If uncertainty over the current litigation is indeed the key factor responsible for suppressing the SP in recent months, settlement could see a significant and sustained rise IMO, as most analysts agree that GTG's core technology patents represent enormous commercial potential - a fact borne out by the growing list of licensees paying considerable fees.
I agree something appears to be in the wind and as I posted two days ago, each of the three most likely developments is likely to be good: 1) Applera settlement 2) fresh licenses (80 "discussions" were in progress at last report 3) Nasdaq level 2 listing
Well worth holding. Good luck to all
Gupper
GTG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
