housing to devalue 40 to 60 percent, page-93

Amazing.....people know prices will fall everywhere.

Even more amazing is they can tell us by how much..

Ive heard 30%, 40% and 60%.....just as the thread heading states.

I had a conversation at length to the CBA and ANZ today.

Told them I wish to borrow 90% on a house in Sydney and Melbourne.

Told them if I can prove serviceability are there ANY housing suburbs in which I cannot lend 90% LVR.

Answer....NO

Isn't that strange?

Seems they don't share the view of the wannabe analysts and are happy to lend up to 90% on just about any house in Sydney or Melbourne.

If house prices are going to drop 40%....
What are banks doing??

Then I thought about it.

The fact I will borrow over 80% means the mortgage insurer will repay the bank the difference if it was to happen and I had to sell at 40% less.

So I spoke to Genworth....one of the biggest mortgage insurers in Australia.

Same questions....same answer......not worried either.

The market analyst I spoke to at Genworth said a 40% drop.....where?

He gives me some stats and says stop reading newspapers.

Luckily im not quite that ignorant......but my time spent today was interesting.

So some stats....

Fixed rates came down this month by .4%
fairly good indicator of where rates are heading
......and it ain't up.


And for those that bang their drum about honeymoon rates and compare us to the US market.....

Did u know only 5.3% of Aussies are on "honeymoon loans".
America was closer to 14%

Loans types in Aus....

24% are fixed
5% honeymoon
70% of borrowers are on variable, line of credit and basic variable loans.

So those that talk up the
"all these people coming out of honeymoon and fixed rates" need to state facts not read fancy articles in $1 newspapers.

Anyway can someone please give me the suburbs that will be 40% less in the next 12-18 months??

Just rattle off some suburbs and their current median price and I will post back every month to see the change in median prices.

Although the rises in house prices will slow and some areas maybe even go backwards to a degree (mortgage belt)due to higher rates and not property prices,for us invstors all this means is people panic sell, rents will go up, already are and our yileds go higher......and all this as rates start to stabalise and come down.


There are however some winners in all of this media driven dribble.....

Real estate agents.....more listings
Investors....higher yields and some cheaper buys

And the only ones to lose...

nervous sellers and very highly geared that should never have bought anyway.

Unfortunaley the same people who bought at the peak and with very high LVRS in less affluent suburbs will sell out to investors who will pick up the cheaper hosue.....then accordingly rent it back to them at a higher rental yield.

Worse still....rates will come down.....house prices will go back up and these same people will buy again.....while the investors sell to them.

Nothing changes