Next year Joining the supply chain ERG Tailings project lets dont forget about that,but after that large additional supply will be pretty much absent of big additional supply.
Must add i believe the great support in Cobalt prices might come in only 2022-2023(Just as many analyst like Mc'kanzie and Benchmark said) which is anyway the time when the whole EV industry gona start to trully unfold, and coincident with the time when we start pour our first Nickel-Cobalt shipments, if things go right.Which is perfect timing for offtake partners in the battery space
Meanwhile the medium to longer term cobalt story is good and i like it, lets dont forget that all,and above we are a nickel play with strong Cobalt credit(N >70%-Co
Also Nickel price recovery will already start in 2019 dont need to wait for it 4-5 year to get a big price boost which will be more beneficial to our project economics than Cobalt price increases, also the the supply demand dynamics regarding class 1 nickel chemical is much more clear for me and easier to predict.
All in all i am super happy with our results to date,i am more bullish than ever in the past one year,yet our shareprice is at 60 cent compared to my average buy in at 1.40 hahaha
averaged up from 0.95 from 2017 october until the PFS,
and now i continue to average down
I am not feeling worried even a sligthest bit. Go Ardea go,this project will be big!
-What i think will bring the most significant boost to our project economics is our mineralized neutralizer. I cant empasize is ebough.
In the most recent release at the graphs we can clearly see that compared to the resources a good size we have >0.5% N Mineralized Neutralizer which also contain Cobalt! If management assumptions right and half of that mineralisation will end up in the solution fluids without much additional costs during neutralisation,than this will boost the project economics by quite a few 100 million dollar.
I think every 5% additional metal reached from the Neutralizer will boost 6-9% our profitability,as the extra metal wont increase mining costs, wont increase acid consumption so the main cost bills wont touch this. Management initially expected if this method works they can increase by ~10% the solution metal content. I think their initial assumptions quite conservative in nature, however even than if only that works out we can expect 300-400 Million dollar increase in NPV! Which can increase our IRR by 3-4%!(depends with what metal prices you calculate. I calculate with more conservative one,Nickel price 7US/lb+0.7 sulphate, Cobalt 27 US/lb)
-Also worth to mention the scandium story, which i dont give much true value to it yet but i love the fact its there.
We can see companies like Nio corp which is much bigger than us in market cap(130M CAD), and all they have a grossly Speculated Study with assumed 3675 USD/kg scandium sales price?!? with 2/3 of their revenue assumed from Scandium? Which wont see the sunlight in the next decade if ever for my opinion,(we can have amazing scandium production with selective feeding while "min(d)ing"our own Ni/Co business). And the market value them 130 M! Regardless of not even have the world scandium market yet..
Or there is another company called scandium international which have bigger market value than us (80million CAD)althought we could make a much better Scandium study(their feed grade is ~40g/t) just focused on Scandium.
So althought all our sight is on our Nickel and Cobalt, but folks Scandium is not worthless for the market and we do have quite a few 1000 tons of it above or within our Nickel cobalt layers, where we can reduce our scandium production costs while doing our big project!
And again i look at it as a bonus but Mr market value it already big time(bigger than our Nickel Cobalt project which is in fact laughable)
Key upcoming news in the next ~70 days which i all expect to be positive compared to what we have,and know today:
-Goongarrie Resource upgrade
-Production of marketing samples (within two weeks)
-Scandium resource estimate, with the scandium Study
-Mineralised neutraliser study(the big kicker)
(20min delay)