AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Ann: AVZ Continues to Drill Record Lithium Intercept, page-51

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  1. 2,170 Posts.
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    Loving the financing progress talk (likely Airguide work).  This is what is needed at this stage.  The deposit is amazing and the transport upgrades are still on schedule.  

    Another important aspect is a sector turn around.  I recommend people have a listen to the GXY Q&A about the Chinese domestic lithium situation to explain why there has been a domestic lithium price drop (mostly non-battery grade carbonate) over the year in that country.  GXY are getting near $980/t for their 5.7% concentrate and mention that they got even high prices from a new consumer.  The Chinese destocking + Roskill/Stanley oversupply scares have done a great job of frightened away investors.  The reality is very different however with contract prices still near record levels and demand booming (65%+ EV sales growth globally is far higher than lithium output expansion).  

    http://www.openbriefing.com/OB/3088.aspx

    Link to Q&A.  Why is this important?   
    On average, lithium stocks are down about 56% from their highs.  AVZ and other explorers more so with AVZ down 76%.   Thus, assuming a sector turn around and lithium stocks pulling back towards their January highs, AVZ should be down about 20% or just below 30c  (the 20% likely due to the hype/speculators that have infested this stock).  Add to this the fact that its far more difficult to find funding when the sector is perceived to be collapsing and one can see that a turn around is paramount.  The good news is that as long as EVs keep booming as they are, it will come.   Anyhow, worth a listen to for the pricing commentary.
 
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