I agree Binno HAV it shouldnt really be in there and not a main cobalt play.
To me only NZC AML and CLA are gonna make it.
CLQ and COB have a chance and maybe AUZ only becuase they have SK inovation in theory behind them. I cant really at this point see any others making it.
As for fall amounts Sorry -I looked through those bloomberg stock charts quickly this morning so made some errors calculating.
NZC 48 cents to 25 cents = down 48%
AML 43-to 28 cents = down 35%
so their average fall is 41.5% - CLA (if SS stacks up) is way better than both of those is still underperforming them since the highs by 50%.
If after the SS the risk discount comes out the SP and CLA goes to the same average 41% fall as them then it should be at 14,5 cents?
But CLA is much much bigger than the other two and should be worth a lot more than them right now its not. just the top of my head figures are -someone should check for sure if they have the time
NZC has around 7 mill tons proven at 0.3% and its worth 75 mill AUD.
AML has around 50 mill tons at 0.15% and its worth 165 mill AUD
CLA has 112 mill tons (going to 150 millish) at 0.11% and is also worth just 75 mill AUD -with AUD 12 mill in the bank!! - that will be way undervalued if SS is good.
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