max, page-4

thanx yc, it's helpful to get a dialogue going.

I read this farmers ideas in:
http://southwestfarmpress.com/cotton/conservative-management-0416/

Can't read too much into it, but he appears to be angling towards a few more acres of cotton and implying that he is not going to increase grains. Maybe the grain farmers are not seeing (do not believe) grain prices staying at these heights? Plus the fact that most hedged at much lower prices. Cotton had a bumper 2007 crop in the us and was still up by 41%. Is this saying that demand for cotton is not going away? Australia did not have a good crop

http://thefarmerstockman.com/index.aspx?ascxid=fpStory&fpsid=33285&fpstid=2

My best guess on cotton, is that it will follow the seasonal pattern and that it will channel until Jun and then fall until Nov

Yes, India should be planting rice where ever they can and yes the sugar price they got was not very profitable. A lot is still in storage. This surplus may not hold the price back. Thailand, also the rice exporter/price setter is the 2nd largest sugar exporter, so they may be replacing sugar with more rice.

My take, is I think that the US farmer may take a conservative line (as per headline :o)) and the Asian farmer may really go for it, ie replace sugar with rice. So i think you might have nailed this. Timing and evidence over the next months is needed...

Max