probably a nice time to look at how we tracking to mmps thots - i know I know who cares
anyway... mmp from date of transaction to see two qtrs for normalisation to see what they can do. MMp saw 10c in november and then track fundamentals.
Lets say we 11,000 @ dec and 22000 @ dec 2019 and 16000 arnd mid year 19 where mmp said thot price would be 13 to 20 with 17 the likely TP if all things working well (20c was best case 12 month out from transaction).
So now we have a transaction price of $73,000 boe but theres always a lot of unknowns about seller & buyer motivation but lets just call it fair.
so we have 12c end 18
arnd 17c mid 2019 - bang on mmp
22c end year
rest we can call upside - so what we need is favourable market conditions - now if one follws FX market closely then alot of talk around USD turning at some point (probaly once rate divergence completed) which is good historically for commodities aslong as world growth holds.
so perfect conditions mid 2019
$ starts to turn and nice boost to commodities(in general)
Trade war with China settles down and hina sees arnd 6.8-7% gdp
Equitiy markts are still pumping along (rout over in 2018 and back to rising?? - i hoping here)
Brexit turns out OK
OPEC like 90-100$ - a finger to Trump after sanction for Khashoggi (one hopes)
India and Africa demand for oil continues to pick up
Importantly SEA meet ebitdax guidance - as all know I not convinced on this one yet and its absolutely key we have no more dilution - a little bit more debt can live with.
Overall, if markets & mngmnt behave I think the next 12 months should be good. Buy up to 10c and ride the sucker. Be quick tho
