positivity, page-6

Just back from a recent bout of H5N1, induced by close contact with an infected avian. fortunately i was the one who got the relenza.....
The past week certainly has been interesting. big pendulum shift in mood over the weekend, worthy of what we are all sitting on.
DT-good to exchange ideas with you again. i too share your enthusiasm, but on the well worn topic of "multiple/s" for the next IRR, I'll gladly take 700 BCF. i'll even be happy at just $2.25 mill/BCF!. i see a significant ramp-up in price over the next 6-8 weeks as we achieve 20ish mmcuft/day. as painful as it is to await de-watering to the extent that stable( and hence announceable) gas flows are achieved, shareholders can take some paradoxical comfort in the fact that the more de-watering ( translation=longer time frame) that is required , the higher the ultimate flows will be.The initial announcements of gas flows will probably come in around 7-10ishmmcuft/day. before or after the expected quartely on the 30th? i'd go after. get the bad news out of the way first...
I suspect that the wills drilled by mae itself will ultimately produce flows at the very high range of expectations ( ie 4ish up to as much as 10ish per well, bearing in mind that of the original wells, flows of up to 20ish per day were achieved), but pass no judgement and am very cautious on older wells( 11-20). When will the flows come together? my guess- end of july-ish for max flows from up top plus the ASD addition. when will we get an independent reserve report out and published???? my guess- mid-julyish. will there be more drilling at CC?- no. Helper?- maybe, if only to further test the KRR1a recently drilled. Even a humongous big re-appraisal of helper comes off a base of only 25 or so BCF- so the money remains on CC with helper to a smaller but ? increasing extent and OK along for the ride.
How easy is it to extend the reserve figures on the past report? Apparently once high, stable flows are achieved this is the key consideration in moving to a new " multiple "value for a new IRR.no real need to drill any more at CC in order to get a number that we want ( you could, of course, as the new owner will want to do, drill on for another 20 years....)The 8-19 still has to be fracced and brought up and running. so i'm guessing mid july for the IRR....
as for the sale , it's coming but ? out of left field or after the IRR.the share price WILL ramp up on increases in production and insto's buying when the company has proved it can produce the goods...
I'm not betting on this weeks anticipated quarterly-report-i hope i'm wrong but reckon that production flows during the 3rd Q were not much different from the 2nd Q. we all know the reasons why. this is not to dampen enthusiasm for the stock but merely to point out that the good times, if not here yet, are coming... if the quarterly disappoints the market then jump on the stock as quickly as you can. the days of price depression are passing quickly....
oil? i won't get carried away ( but i REALLY hope I'm wrong). never been any before in the area, and only 2 out of 5 drilled up top by mae itself struck it. no one is going to pay an oil premium for a company based on this evidence. the next owner will drill in high hopes but prudent expectations for what might or might not be there in economic quantity. Without further mae drilling at CC the oil business remains an enigma...
overall, a fabulous asset which remains hopelessly undervalued and is therefore at present a great buy. frustrations are running high. greed and impatience are a bad combination. I'll take greed and temper it with just a bit more patience.