yes the cash burn is a genuine point of concern, but I'd be more worried if we were producing at nameplate and cash flow going backwards, which seems to be happening to one of our "peers". You need to factor in 10,000DMT already shipped and paid to the $10m left at the end of the quarter, before adding what we will ship in Nov/Dec etc - I think its reasonable to think we would shipt ~ 25,000-30,000 in Nov+Dec.
Cash flow is tight, but I believe AJM has steadied the ship after the wobbles since the takeover talk started. I like the rejection of t/o, the focus on ramp to nameplate, and stage 2 investment decision by end of the year. Remember by end of December, we are likely to:
- be producing at or close to name plate, meaning earnings $10m+ per month are likely
- investment decision on stage 2 expansion...
- stage 2 offtake, including potential for up front cash injection from offtakers
- resolution of offtake with JRO one way or another - either with re-structured entity or worst case a new buyer.
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