Originally posted by TerribleTadpole
By my reading the fundamentals have changed somewhat. Before the study results were released we were sitting on the rocket waiting for somebody to light the blue touchpaper. We all (including Resapp management, I believe) expected the new, tightened protocol to return results very similar to the Australian results. That would have given us an FDA submission with compelling results against a solid gold standard. The digital health world was waiting with bated breath to do anything to get access to ResappDx at any price. It would revolutionise respiratory health the world over.
Before the results came out I held my stock even at 4x purchase price.
Now the results are out I have a significantly different understanding of the fundmentals and the narrative from Resapp has changed somewhat in line with this.
Rather than a compelling FDA case it looks to me like Resapp have a persuasive case based on a set of moderately positive results measured against an unreliable standard. It doesn't mean they won't get FDA approval, but the tool no longer represents a transformation and the case for fast tracking ahead of other applications is weakened. I believe this will also affect the rate of take-up from the market and the price that the product will command. The weaker results seem likely to lower ResappDx from a must-have-now diagnostic tool to a useful-adjunct to the diagnostic toolkit. I suspect that potential clients will be encouraged to see if they can do better, either by having a go themselves or by waiting to see what other offers appear in the next year or two.
I don't believe the current share price action is the work of "intra-day traders". If it were that then I think you'd see the price flapping around a lot more than it has been as traders worked the spread. I also don't see any trading activity that would make me think that there is manipulation being attempted. Volumes are low. There are no sell "walls" in place and there are no sudden crunches where several buy lines get wiped to get the stop-losses and panic happening.
I just think that, like me, a lot of investors don't see any near term call to action; no drivers of FOMO. The news flow although long doesn't appear to have any transformative, rerate-producing potential. The road ahead looks like a long grind.
To me Resapp looks a lot less like a rocket now and much more like a Holden Commodore towing a caravan up the hill. It'll probably get there, but it won't be exciting.
This not a ramp (nor a rant). My funds are committed elsewhere for the moment. I'll come back when and if the differentials look attractive again. I'm posting this because I'm seeing a lot of posts about manipulation and how the share price is disconnected from the fundamentals. I hope it will help anybody critically evaluating Resapp if they have the view of a close follower of Resapp who did sell whose view of the company has changed.
Hi TT,
I think this post is a bit disingenuous.
I would encourage you to speak to Management prior to making statements on their behalf. If you had done this you would know that they never expected to replicate the Australian results. Those results were outstanding and surprised even Management. The difficulties in getting a consensus diagnosis in the US is well known and the tightened protocols were effective in delivering results which demonstrate ResappDx is more accurate than a physician in more than 2/3rds of cases (URTI, LRTI and Asthma) with access to the full suite of diagnostics tools. Obviously these tools will not be available to them through a telehealth consult.
The proposition for Resapp remains the same with the company significantly advanced. CE lodgement this year based on the Australian results is highly likely to deliver approval for all respiratory illnesses in Europe. The application for FDA should also be lodged this year with the argument to be made by the company that the app provides a valuable tool to assists doctors in making an diagnosis. This argument is hard to fault when you consider at the moment a diagnosis for URTI, LRTI and Asthma via telehealth is either based solely on listening or cannot be made at all.
I have not even touched on the sleep apnea results or WASH program.
To me the most recent results have shaken out ill-informed investors who were hoping for a single golden goose moment. Unfortunately in the real world amazing companies are built on the back of years of hard work and not a single moment or FOMO.
Everyone is free to make their own investment decisions however I would encourage you to honestly assess the position of company rather than retrospectively justify your decision to sell.
Cheers.
