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1ronnie

26,805 Posts.

2391

12/11/18

12:02

Post #: 36469807

Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

If you haven't noticed, ASX building sector stocks have been hammered off-late. In particular those with exposure to US building industry like CSR, Boral and James Hardie.

An insight I'd like to share with you is for you to look at when these stocks peak in the last cycle - go look at their charts from 2005.
They all peaked around early 2007 and from there on, its downward trend all the way to bottom out in early 2009- it indicates that these building sector stocks peak about a year or a bit more before the onset of a recession. Mapping that to what we see now in the behaviour of these building stocks, we should anticipate a global recession to hit in late 2019 - early 2020.

Having said that, we could either have a last hurrah from next month to early 2019 or in sideways downward bias trend for the remaining period from here to late 2019. My powder will be kept very dry from here. The risks now outweigh the potential gains in medium to long term investing but there obviously will be opportunity for short term trading in the meantime on handful of good stock picks for the savvy traders (which we are not all carved out to be). So periods of rise from here represent an opportunity to sell down ahead of the coming Big Kahuna probably a year from here.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6

1 Stock Code Stock Down from high or recent high Down trend from Previous Cycle Peak Bottomed

2 CSR[/B] CSR -46.0% Early May 18 Second Peak Mar 07 Early 2009

3 BLD BORAL -21.0% Early Oct 18 May-07 Early 2009

4 ABC ADELAIDE BRIGHTON -19.5% Early July 18 Jun-08 Early 2009

5 FBU FLETCHER BUILDING -14.7% Late June 18 May-07 Early 2009

6 JHX JAMES HARDIE -14.6% Last week & before Early 2007 Early 2009

The above are my own research, please DYOR to see for yourself the cyclical nature of stocks. The downturn has begun with these stocks leading the pack. Take care!

Expand

Sharing with you the stocks I would have concerns about going forwards, despite touted claims about their potential from some quarters

> BUD (Buddy Platform)
> YOJ (Yojee)
> BRN (Brainchip)
> 9SP (9 Spokes Intl)
> AXP (Airxpanders)
> EDE (Eden Concrete)
> BLA (Blue Sky Alternative)
> MYQ (My Fiziq)
> NUH (Nuheara)
> FZO (Family Zone)
> SAS (Sky and Space)
> EN1 (Engage BDR)

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Its Over, page-401

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
1	Stock Code	Stock	Down from high or recent high	Down trend from	Previous Cycle Peak	Bottomed
2	CSR[/B]	CSR	-46.0%	Early May 18	Second Peak Mar 07	Early 2009
3	BLD	BORAL	-21.0%	Early Oct 18	May-07	Early 2009
4	ABC	ADELAIDE BRIGHTON	-19.5%	Early July 18	Jun-08	Early 2009
5	FBU	FLETCHER BUILDING	-14.7%	Late June 18	May-07	Early 2009
6	JHX	JAMES HARDIE	-14.6%	Last week & before	Early 2007	Early 2009

Its Over, page-401

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