Ollie, who posts from both sides of an argument has presented the view of some CIA agents. That view may or may not have much credibility. That the shii, the group that is thought to be in the majority in Iraq (only a census could confirm that) were certainly persecuted under Saddam, have infinitely greater freedom now as do some other parties including the Communists, is not seriously questioned. (Incidently the Christians did very well under Saddam who was said to attend some church meetings and I know he donated an organ to the Baghdad Presbyterian Church. It is said they caused him no trouble and were model citizens).
I think we as modern Westeners do not grasp how lightly, intensely, religious people hold onto physical life. The Coalition would bring to all Iraqis in time ( and through Iraqi representatives) the freedoms that we enjoy. If all Iraqis valued that highly enough it could be theirs.
There are educated and secular Iraqis and no doubt others who do but there are also Iraqis who place their religion above that goal,and thus are even willing to die in defence of their religion and for a religious Iraq, if thus directed by their religious leaders, as opposed to a secular nation. So there are some problems on that front for the US.
It is important to remember that the Iraqi shiites tend through Sistani to separate "church and state" and the civil war scenario may miss the mark. If the Shii Iraqis wanted the US out by June the easiest way would be to accept the US proposal. It is not hard to imagine that the reclusive Sistani, in playing his own game covertly, wants to keep the US involved militarily for a longer period to make sure there is not civil war between the factions, while he tries to get the best deal for his own group. I think there will be many suprises in Iraq in the coming months and years which may not be all negative from the West's view point. It is important to know that it is also in the best interests of those European nations who opposed the war, for a stable and relatively democratic Iraq to emerge as the end product.
My own best anticipation, before the war, was for a non-Ba'athist benign pro-Western autocracy. It could just end up being better than that.
