Short Term Trading Week Starting: 19 November 2018, page-32

Sold out of AMI and got into EVN today as well.
AMI chart isn't looking the strongest and the forward guidance estimates are lower than the previous quarter.
The pros on AMI will likely play on this fact, especially given it has such a large retail follow so I'm expecting them to try and shake out any weak hands in the near term..

(Any stock that missus earnings or under guidance will get smashed in this market)


DCN's chart isn't looking too hot either...
Although there appears to be some sneaky buying there..

DCN have a solid growth story going forward though with FY19 guidance of 180-210k oz.
We are expecting to see these guidance numbers reflected in the December quarter.

This is an excerpt from a brokerage consultancy firm who just did a report on DCN with a price target of $3,

"Gold Production rate Dacian’s guidance for FY June 2019 is 180 to 210koz based on building up to 8ktpd for 2.5Mtpa of which 3ktpd is from underground (u/g), with a target of >200kozpa for >10 years. ERAs view is having achieved ~30koz in SQ18, leaves 150koz to 180koz for the remainder of FY19, and knowing that production is currently expected to be skewed to JQ19, infers potential production of possibly 60koz to 70koz in JQ19
(ie240 to 280kozpa & that is still without Cameron Well – which implies that 300kozpa may be possible)."
https://www.eagleres.com.au/images/pdfs/reports/2018/dcn_19nov18.pdf

If DCN can get above 50koz for this quarter then i imagine it would give DCN's share price a nice boost.


DCN & EVN for AUD Gold price exposure.
RSG & SBM for USD Gold price exposure.


It feels like a lot of the Gold producer stocks have all had minor pull backs today whilst still showing a lot of buying strength, possibly bigger players getting set...?


EVN looks set to break out when the next rise in Gold happens.




If the FED's comments continue to be of a "Dovish" tone then we should expect a further breakdown in the USD and the US Treasury Bond yields, both of which (especially under the current market conditions) are very bullish for Gold.