My viewpoint is that the potential revenue is merely a claim at this point and has no concrete basis as to whether or not it would come to fruition. You need to remember that at some point in the past everyone was bedazzled by how the 3Ds were getting customers and how revenue was going to ramp up to a million and a plethora of other things. We know now that everything failed to realize. How to have concrete basis then? I believe it must be done through guaranteed commercial offtake agreement with direct customers, which would be telcos with real hundreds of million dollars or multi-billion dollar spectrum lease, ground infrastructure, etc. We are talking MTN, etc analogous to something like Telstra, Optus, TPG and Vodafone in Australia. Not just one telco either, we are talking multiple major telcos all over the world, not just in Africa, that own the infrastructure and spectrum in each countries that SAS ellegedly going to cover. So we are talking multiple, separate agreements. I believe agreements with those telcos are the only way that SAS could ever potentially make significant amount of revenue. Without agreements with them then I believe there is no way that SAS could ever make any significant revenue. It just won’t happen I think.
As far as I know it, at the moment most if not all MoUs are with very obscure, hardly verifiable entities like Beeptool, universal cyberlinks, cendrawasih, innovsat, IATAS Israel, etc. All of those entities, in my view, are dubious businesses some with miniscule if almost no digital footprint. They are users of the internet, spectrums provided by telco giants and in no position to directly pay a single cent to SAS. Lets take universal cyberlinks and innovsat Brazil (the recent MoU), look up where they are located, the way I see it they are pretty dodgy as hell. As far as I understand it both are literally resellers of merely satellite equipments...equipments to connect to satellite communication and has no business signing any MoU with SAS. Practically nothing can stop them doing that but the MoU, in my personal view, would be absolutely worthless. Cendrawasih...I have no idea what they even do considering I couldn’t anything about them at all. So they have the number in MoU but not much at all in substance. So even if the constellation is up I believe there is no guarantee that any significant revenue would come in time before they would need to start to do CR after CR in order to just stave off bankruptcy, and this is IF, BIG IF, SAS manage to somehow get the proper amount of funding. The amount of which would not change by my calculation, it would still be around 70 million+ per year for 4 years or 200 million+ for 2 years. Considering at the moment SAS has arond 100 million market cap then that is absolute lunacy. Then we have 51 million recurring cost to replace 25 percent of the satellites each year....it is mindblowing if anyone bother to do the maths.
By my calculation and understanding, the most realistic approach that SAS could take is to launch in small batches over 4 years like I have explained before at 70 million a year. Like you said then the best case scenario is that, by divine providence, SAS would be able to generate revenue without commercial offtake agreements with telcos after the first launch. Assuming that exposure and orbital decay would render the pearls only operational for 5-6 years, then it is only logical that SAS would have to replace 25 percent of total satellites after 4 years (SAS mentioned themselves that they intend to do this), that is assuming that SAS intends to complete the constellation in 4 years time. So at minimum then SAS would need to launch around ~68 pearls per year, starting fom the next CR, non negotiable, because if they do it less than that then they would end up short of 200 forever and ever. Assuming that the life of the pearls are 5-6 years then the pearls would need to be replaced every 4 years. If they only do say 20 pearls next year and then another the next and so on then they will never reach 200 full pearls, they won’t even reach 100 based on pure mathematics alone....this is because the moment they reached the fourth year of launch the first 20 will need to be replaced and so on and so forth
So would SAS be able to get 70 million worth of funding??
Amongst the general angst of the sharemarket?
Amongst tough competition from fully funded big names like One web, space X, etc?
Amongst the general unfunded uncertainty of the MoUs with random names?
Who would be ready to plonk 50 million, HALF OF THE ENTIRE MARKET CAP OF SAS, let alone 70 million without dilutive prospect to SH?
As far as I know,
Meir has Multimodis, a management company.
Meidad has spacialist and Maya works there.
Gomspace makes the satellite.
Hypothetically speaking,
If I have 70 million to just plonk then I might as well hire them all separately through their respective companies and get the satellites built through gomspace while bypassing the whole SAS business. As far as I udnerstand it gommspace has the IP on the satellites, as for software surely Meidad with some software engineer can make another...
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