Boffin,
To a very large extent I agree with your sentiments on ROC, and I excited around $3 last August (which on trend possibly gets it to $1 around Xmass). I do however believe that such a bold statement as you made (either with or without supporting arguments) was bound to extract the ire of many a loyal and patient holder.
For my part I would remind those hoping for a prompt turnaround to ensure they have considered the following:
* The painstakingly slow process of delivering on even a fraction of the hype wrt Beibu 2 years ago (and longer).
* The windfall tax regime on oil production in China.
* The PSC terms in Angola, which will mute the return from any success there.
* High ongoing exploration and overhead costs.
* A decade long track record which would have been better served by investment in oil futures, or indeed a tank of oil (with storage costs no doubt lowere than the drag from ROC's admin/overhead costs).
After a certain time I'd say (in the absence of substantial change of management) that it is fair to judge a company by it's composite track record. From $2 to $2 in a decade, for very good reason imho, despite oil soaring. I'd sooner bet on $1 than $5.
Oilers are a tough bunch to pick, with foresight, aren't they. ROC has been around long enough to also provide the hindsight evaluation tool. A luxury I suggest you use.
EL
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