Short Term Trading Week Starting: 26 November 2018, page-67

Yeah, agreed.

We/they don't usually know if they've gone too far or not until after the fact, as the Fed's reactions to rates are a lagging indicator to the economies health.


I find it hard to see the Fed raising rates and US Bond yields going higher if all economic indicators are pointing to a decline in growth..


The sudden shift of tone in the Fed was also telling...
In October, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said "We're a long way from neutral"
Now only a month later in November, he's saying we're "Just below" neutral...

To me, this suggest that the decline in growth is accelerating quicker than they expected and without rattling the markets too much, December will be the last rate hike..



Have you been buying the USD the year @Anton Chigurh?
If you have, are you holding heading into 2019 until the Fed looks to reverses course?



US 10 yr Treasury Bond - Monthly Chart