the moment of truth has arrived, page-53

Hardball

After all these years I still doubt my "simple" approach.

Yet, it has always been correct, since the '80's when I first started predicting with it but sadly not following it always.

It's funny how the cycles said sell mid July 2007 and buy mid March 2008 and many said that can't be.

I recognise that these are generalised times and sometimes can be precise and sometimes miss exact tops and bottoms.

Like Nenner and Bensimmons et al, I belive that cycles are everything.

When time is compressed then the price action will be violent, otherwise a more sedate response ensues.

The "simple" analysis says any pullback in May should see 5 months of good upside, and maybe even May is just the take off point.

All this is tempered with the idea of an overall topping process.

The following cycles plus remember 40 years on from 1970.

2009 has Armstrong topping in April which can be compared with Sep 2000. Decennial topping Oct 2009. Prez topping Oct this year and lows in Feb 2009, a high in Aug 2009 and an Oct 2009 low.

How do you mix all that?

I would guess that from May or even early June we have a great run until Oct.

A hiccup into Nov and then up into new year.

Down into early Feb then up into mid April.

Because 2 cycles are still up beyond that we may see a short sell off as per "Shanghai slump" like March 2007 but markets should recover into Aug 2009.

Once we get to Aug/Nov 2009 we once again have all cycles down like we did from July 2007.

The period into late 2010 has nothing going for it at all and should be bad.

Paste it on the wall and let's see.

This is a generalised forecast and our local market may behave a little differently as I still believe commodities will change our action significantly.