Hey older wiser.
I know you know your stuff, and I have no doubt that hazer is a massive disruptor in the hydrogen field, and their technology is very very solid..
Potential earnings are a great driver of a spec stock, and having the FEED study would be very advantageous to figure potential earnings..
When I invested, originally I saw the potential, with hazer spouting their business model with a 3 pronged approach, licensing, own own plants, and partnership. To me all 3 could be happening at once and the scale up would be enormous.
In my mind they develop a blue print of a plant that worked, (done) scale it up using a partner or 2 or 3 or 4, (as FBR technology loves to be scaled up). The hard work has been done there..
Develop those blue prints and pass onto builders. The control systems would be where the genius is.. understanding where the genius in this technology comes from is only half the battle, putting it into practice and optimising it is where the real IP is. So the IP would be it’s own patent UNTIL the patents are agreed on and achieved. I have no doubt patents will be achievable.
So then send out 5 or 6 builders and get these plants operational. Again in my mind companies like BOC, and parent company Linde, terranaki, south Australian government, Toyota, Hyundai, would all be looking for a long term plan, and be looking to smash our plants. For some it would be to get hydrogen vehicles into the country. For others to get a greener hydrogen production method into the billion dollar chemical market. Others again, to (for want of a better phrase) to remove co2 from the atmosphere and produce green energy. No matter which way you look at it, it’s an amazing resume of outcomes.
Now, if you limit yourself to own and build your own plants. Next year 1 plant will be built:2019. The next year after some income is generated and perhaps more options are bought and money comes in. 2020 another plant is built owned by hazer, while MIN are building 5 or 6. 2021, hazer use the MIN royalties to build another 2 or 3. 2022, and MIN scale up another say 10.. good progression, and hazer generate a decent income. By this time hazer should be worth dollars.
The Australian market suffers from ADD.. most investors are looking for quick gains, not long term holds, or if they are in for the long haul, they want dividends.
This is why I was so happy with hazer, 3 pronged approach the world will know hazer, and by 2020 the Japanese government will be showcasing a hazer fueled hydrogen bus, ferrying athletes through the Olympic village. And refueling stations will be popping up everywhere with others paying for them.
Now.
By 2022, solar panels are going to be dirt cheap, and rolled out more across Australia, with the opposition already trying to push panels to aussies at cheap rates, this will occur quickly and IMHO a shift is coming. Hence the reason I believe hazer is right time NOW. Not in 3 or 4 years time when other tech will reduce its impact.
IMHO, if hazer stays on this path of only building own plants as Geoff Ward has described, they will miss a few boats. And reduce the possible market impact that hazer could have. With no current income and a slow wind up of generation, a handbrake has been firmly pulled up on the texhnology.
On top of that, the plain and simple abuse of option holders who bought to inject capital into an amazing company (you included from my understanding olderwiser) to raise later to a corporate who will look harder at the due diligance than I have, and who, to do so, no doubt will be provided figures to understand the gains from plants, (I.e. feed study). Is just plain arrogant.
It may have something to do with Geoff Pocock still selling on market and being a major option holder, maybe it’s to do with wanting minors out to have bigger holders. I don’t know and don’t care.. but at least now, I know my place.
Good luck to all.
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