IMO, once the debt is converted and other matters washed out we will likely have more than 750 mil shares; probably 850# mil.dilutedI agree that the longer term prospect of CKA is 7c/share (NPAT of $59.5 mil AUD) but there are many potential snags along the way.
-There's the low river months (say 60 days)
-There's inclement weather
-There's unscheduled stoppages
Lets say that the Vietnamese shallow draft barges can take 1500 ton/trip x 2 trips/day#, that's about 900K t/p/a for 300 working days.
If CKA owns 26%, thats 234K ton/p/a
Let's say the going FOB price is $130* USD/ton ($175/ton AUD)
This would gross about $41 mil AUD
Expenses:
Royalties for Platinum & BMA..say $25/ton..........$5.85 mil
Wages & admin O/heads......................................$4,0 mil
Tax & Gov royalties Audits etc..............................$3.15 mil
Barging and loading @ $20/ton ...........................$4.7 mil (it costs $4-$5 ton to barge the upper reaches only as per the recent Ann)
That would net out at say $23.4 mil or an EPS of 2.75c/share@ (assuming 850 mil shares diluted) (figures rounded out in AUD)
I am not familiar with the FOB value of ROM (non-CHPP) coal whether that be PCI or SHCC.
Even though CKA's PCI is high quality according to SJ, it is
unlikely to draw a premium price in ROM form and I do I know what the mix
of PCI to Coling coal once the coking coal comes online..
I just had a look at the AGM's photo of the coalface and with a meter or so of coal seam and
12 times that of shaley overburden. IMO, there's a high risk of contamination and without a CHPP this would likely devalue the ROM coal..
# At this rate perhaps someone could venture a guesstimate on round trip time( incl loading and unloading) & the number of barges needed.?
@: this excludes the one off refund of $20 mil+ which will be eaten up quite quickly by drilling Tbar, developing BBM coking coal & the new
road-port & stockpile/blending facility, IMO.
PS: I still think that we'll see a buyout bid from BMA by the end of Feb.
