the invisible hand of China?, page-5

I disagree strongly with your assumptionthat China wants Lynas gone.   China needs Lynas to survive.   Take a look 8 years back when China stop shipments to Japan.  The design out for REO were many and many of them are still hurting REO demand today.  Looking at volume Lynas is very small and does not impact China’s bottom line much at all.   If Lynas’s closes China becomes a sole source.    Many companies will fear this.    REO is a good solution but there are many alternatives.    IF Lynas folds many companies will design out REO products.  The decrease in demand will be far greater than what Lynas sells today.  Take a look at what WRGrace did with Catalyst 7 years ago.   Severely reducing demand for Ce and La which is responsible for the lower demand today for these products.    If Lynas closes today China will see a nice increase in sales for a few years but then demand will drop dramatically.  I think they know this.