Indeed SRC Indeed - all of what you says makes sense.
If you read Bell Potters assessmnet on Origin Energy and it's recoverables reserves of app 10TCF and see that BG are in reality buying Origin on that basis ( they have said in the Press they don't want the retail arm of the Business) it gives you an insight into just where KAR will sit with a similar find.
If you figure this -$14 Billion for Origin less retail arm and i am only picking figures for the sake of the excercise say - $7 billion for the retail arm - you do the math on 7 billion for potential gas reserves of 10TCF's - we have a similar find then KAR reserves worth 7 billion of which we have 40% or 2.8 billion divided by 120 million shares = $33.60 a share ( please check maths am spastic at it)
The problem Woodside has is they have pre sold all Gas finds and now like FMG have to get it out the ground ( sea) to satisfy contracts hence their sale of the Timor shelf to the Messiah IMO - they couldn't committ to the drilling program similarly when they walked away form the second shelves they outbid KAR for a year or so ago.
This brings me to the Brazil shleves - and why i think we will be ok. Knowing this position and the committment the Messiah has made to 3.D's and drilling program in Brazil and what he has in the North West Shelf over the next year - we must have a very significant JV PARTNER IN BRAZIL.
The Messaih wouldn't have entertained this unless he had it locked away for all intents and purposes.
I will let you keep the boys pepped up - Expletiveless has asked me to ask you what he movie is about.
Dart gone strangley quiet - think he is haveing a lot of trouble counting how much money he has.
The old Black Swan has been in for 3-4 years now and never sold a share- just chipped away accumulating as many as a man with little money can!!!!
I tend to agree re the takeover - speaking of that how do you reckon BG feel paying all that cash for Origin when they could have been looking at 60% of the same size play for around a billion dollars - looking at the Conooco deal???
THE WORD FORM THE SWAN IS - NEVER MESS WITH THE MESSIAH HE IS TOO SMART FOR THOSE POMS WHO TRIES TO CALL THE GREAT ONE'S BLUFF.
Over and out
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