Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-12

This fund company has now bought 5% of Aurelia. That's about 31m. The company apparently manages about 25bn. Thus 31m would be 0.124%. It is certainly worth mentioning that such a big player finds such a small gold producer interesting. Imagine Blackrock would buy Aurelia. These are not completely unimportant signals for the normal investor like you and I. On the other hand, a fund doesn't have the same emotional bond when it invests money. If the price of Aurelia halves then the impact on their portfolio is rather small. Nevertheless, I think that the fund managers have made some considerations about Aurelia and I am really convinced that they don't buy something like this to earn 10%. They are certainly looking for a profit of 50-100% minimum....and they can wait.

The price has moved within a remarkably narrow range in the last 4 weeks. Factually between 68 and 72 cents. The excursion towards 80 cents at the beginning of December was ended abruptly and without obvious reasons. I think someone here had a reason to stop the SP. I'm pretty sure we would have left the 80 cents behind and run towards 90 cents. Something that obviously doesn't fit certain people. Neither does it fit these people that the course falls too much (window dressing?). Striking as at the end of disallowed sessions of the SP rises mostly still one or 2 ticks. Someone seems to have an interest in keeping the price at 70 or more cents with little effort.

Imagine that someone wants to buy Aurelia shares for 30m. The average turnover has been around 800-900k per day for weeks. So let's assume someone wants to build up such a position without pushing the price too hard. Then maybe half of that day's turnover could come from him. This again means that it takes 4-8 weeks to build such a position.

At the beginning of January the figures for the 4th quarter are apparently published. Without a positive surprise the SP will hardly do anything.   I think we will really take off in Q2 2019. Supported by a 5-10% higher gold price and good drilling results.

So I think the SP today in 1 year will be A$1 higher...but I also think there are people who don't want the SP to go up too fast because they need a few more months to accumulate. I change therefore my sentiment to hold and I let the big boys accumulate and play around a little bit.