Canadian Montney plays, page-16

We all have our confirmation biases. I'm not concerned by PONY debt just as I'm not impressed by CE1 lack of it. It's just a difference in Capital structure (does Miller & Modigliani sound familiar?). I'd be concerned if PONY couldn't make debt payments.

Never would I expect PONY to acquire extra "bare acreage" such as that offered by CE1. PONY made an strategic acquisition in early 2017 of its neighbour (and partner) which had all important infrastructure & extra pipeline capacity in addition to production and undeveloped acreage. Just can't see how CE1 acreage could compete for capital given PONY's present drilling locations - so I guess I completely disagree with your view of "The bad news for us here is that PONY may have been a potential buyer of Calima, but with a distressed balance sheet it will be looking to pay down debt instead you would think". Different perspectives I guess.

Anyway back to Canada issues et-al, as what effects BC/Canada effects my interests & PONY (and CNQ & COP) specifically.

"The project owners will provide their own natural gas supply and will individually market their share of LNG", LNG Canada said in the statement.

Long ago when first purchasing PONY shares the rationale for exit was one of the LNG owners would want to buy it lock stock and barrel. Basically the same as yours now. Well still waiting on that and PONY now a much bigger and more successful entity.

"The project owners will provide their own natural gas supply and will individually market their share of LNG", LNG Canada said in the statement. The owners being Shell (40%), Petronas (25%), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi (15%) & KoGas (5%).

Looking at 3rd party gas supply options ...

1) Petronas - not likely - as they (and their North Montney JV partners) have over 52Tcf of Contingent Resources in Canada. Arguably their resource could supply the 1.3 Tcf per annum of the whole LNG project for 40 years. But that would be an enormous risk to "sole source". Just puts it in perspective though.

2) Shell Canada - has 80% WI (Groundbirch project) producing ~ 500Mmcfpd of gas from Montney with (expected) field life >35 yrs. In effect that could also supply all of Shell's gas supply needs .. as even stated by Shell in Oct'18.

3) PetroChina 15% - well guess what - they are the other 20% in the Groundbirch project. Petrochina also has JVs with Encana

4) Mitsubishi 15% has JVs with Encana

5) KoGas 5% .... no gas supply (yet). Plenty to choose from though

Yes there are other LNG ventures proposed. All take a long time to build and deliver first LNG cargo (estimated 5 yrs for LNG Canada).

FWIW.

Good luck to you all. 

@danpech  are you invested in this one?