first cut analysis, page-30

good post swap but i don't quite share your level of enthusiasm.


in particular i have problems with your comment:

"The 30h May portion looks to be a couple of administrative requirements around an additional working capital facility and inter-creditor arrangements. Believe me, Centro will hit this in a heartbeat."

i think you are missing the point. this has nothing to do with centro. it is a matter for the banks to decide between THEMSELVES. and we all know how difficult this extension was to obtain. there will be so much fighting and squabbling between the banks as each tries to protect its interest between now and may 30. i cannot possibly see how they will reach an agreement between themselves in the next month.

and if they can't, it means centro has defaulted, which is really stupid because centro cannot influence the outcome, and goodbye to the extension, and bring on the penalty rate of 5.5% which is ADDITIONAL to the 1.75%. has anyone done cashflow modelling to see if centro could support interest payments with such a high interest rate?

imo because they said they would capitalize it to the outstanding debt it indicates to me they don't have the cashflow to meet it.

imo the market will be cautious tomorrow. cappers may even force it into the red by the end of the day.