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10:06
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Originally posted by Obe wan
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There’s no doubt been a surge in demand for lithium which is only gathering pace and in typical fashion every man and his dog with any sort of a supply source, will try to jump on board the gravy train. Thing is, the lithium suppliers from 10/20/25 years ago from when Sony commercialized the first Li-ion battery in 1991 and when Greenbushes first started to churn out lithium in 1995 meeting demand triggered by the mobile phone industry ... is that the processors basically picked out the quality mine / sources and all other sources basically flowed in to the tailings dump in Tantalum or Tin mines; as it was too difficult / uneconomical to convert. I think we’ll be hearing not too far into the future ‘The King is dead (Greenbushes) long live the King (Manono). IMO, there will be massive demand for Manono spod, no matter what size they go to and Manono is a huge threat to the Australian Lithium Valley. Competitors to Manono IMO, are hoping that it will never come on line and wouldn't couldn't be happier if it failed. You can talk it down and be in denial mode; but Manono will happen
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Obe, I am not talking it down, its a great resource. But the size of the resource is relevant to the production that can come out and onto the market. A 5mt mine in 4-5 years or so, is still the same size as PLS for example. All the existing Aust mines have large reserves and can increase these reserves. I expect PLS to go to a 7.5 - 10 mt mine as well if demand is there. I am sure AVZ will do the same, however these increases in mine size will place additional stress on the logistics and transport, increasing risk. I am not sure if the big buyers find this risk palatable and prefer to buy the same from less risky locations.
