Ann: FLC procures first Aspiral contracts with ITEST in China, page-38

Hi @peterpanned. I too was caught out by their forward statements of 10,000 units order by CGGC in 2016. Hindsight being what it is , which is 20/20 vision, clearly we were swept up then when the pendulum swung to maximum optimism.

Now the pendulum has swung to maximum pessimism. Likewise, I wouldn’t want to be caught by the pendulum now, and react wrongly.

In 2016, I clearly overestimated the potential. As you have rightly pointed out, we now know there were other competing technologies like MBR in China, and cheaper activated sludge solutions. Other incumbents like Beijing Originwater is big there. The sewer network was not in place in the rural regions and that posed further delays. The SOEs wanted to see demonstration plants to assess MABR on the ground. That has also added delays.

The reality has set in and we are where we are. Is the current reality all bad? Not really. The market rock has started to budge. Hubei iTest was a real relief for me. CGGC is also in Hubei. Is CGGC watching? I think they are still being engaged by FLC. Will they still come through with 10,000 units? Not in one order definitely. But there could be some in the tenths, not hundreds, definitely not in thousands. SUBRE and it’s contribution to river intermediation is a big potential.

My point is, capitulation is too late for me now. If I was a true contrarian for this stock, this is the right time to buy. 2019 will see earnings turn a corner, albeit a long one. But I am only guessing. Don’t have the benefit of hindsight 20/20. If the game was that easy, everybody here would be a millionaire.

The mistakes and responsibility are solely mine though. As a foreigner, I would be a lot more careful in embracing forward statements by management in the future. Wouldn’t take them for gospel truth. In fact, best to discount them by 70%. We live and learn and fight another day. Peace.