PLS Relative Valuation Analysis, page-129

I recall a broker report a year ago forecasting PLS 2019 EBITDA of $200m. I reckon with lower prices, $150m would be hopeful at best.

Deduct Interest repayment and Tax would be negligible with accumulated carried forward losses. The NPAT would be largely utilised towards Stage 2 financing.

PLS 2020 EBITDA would hopefully yield $250m and winding Stage 2 up to nameplate by commencement of FY2021. That NPAT being utilised towards debt repayment.

So ... hopefully ... we commence FY2021 with Stage 2 at nameplate and debt free.

Dividends?

I would hope that Cisco drill results would've defined a JORC ore reserve and resource by then. Further, additional Pilgangoora drilling expanding that total resource.

Dividends would be great BUT Pilgangoora Stages 3 and 4 have to be financed and THEN also Mt Cisco's Stages 1 and 2.

The POSCO downstream 30Kt LiOH plant financed by the $80m convertible bond plus a little cashflow from FY2020 NPAT. I would hope that this deal gets expanded to 100Kt eventually AND that POSCO's advanced tech becomes the industry standard. We then have to find finance for that extra 70Kt pa plant investment.

Dividends? That's what its all about for investors. However the history of miners shows that profits are reinvested into resource and plant expansion. Perhaps a token Dividend for FY2021.

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