A year of Disappointment, page-31

They have until November to gobble up the performance shares for the ten builds and I'd expect that to be a rush job too. 

These shares have a couple more requirements which make it a bit harder for the Pivacs to flub through. It needs to involve an arm's length company and be a commercial deal.

Now we know it's probably going to be Archistruct who order the builds and I say probably because that's the current plan.

What FBR would like to do is simply announce that these conditions have been met and give themselves the shares. They'd make some bs claim that the contract has been audited by an accountant or lawyer and it's 'arm's length' and 'commercial'. They'd not release the contract, the details, the revenues generated, the costs involved in those revenues or the actual professional sign off itself. Exactly like they have with the last few share grabs.

But that's what got them a first strike. So they will actually have to try and be transparent. If they put the AGM before the expiry of those performance shares and that milestone is not completed then look out. They will be playing with fire that FIL will not hit them with a second strike. But if they put the AGM after the expiry date then they had better act honestly or there will be a spill.

In the next year a suspect a significant watering down in the claims and expectations of the ability of HX. It might be the on-board pre-fab of blocks like milling and channelling, the building weather conditions possible, the duration of build, requirements of the slab, whatever. I suspect it will be 'dumbed' down and simplified in order to work. Those advances may come in future years.

I see 4-5c as a price target. The asset backing of the company isn't there and there is no revenue or profit stream that exists or that can be modelled with any substantiation to support the current share price.

Yes, there is upside risk. But there is downside risk too. World domination by FBR is a much smaller risk than HadrianX being commercially viable.