FLC 4.55% 9.2¢ fluence corporation limited

Stanford certification and subsequent USA sales, page-21

  1. 680 Posts.
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    There is no denying that progress has/is being made. Its the missed guidances, missleading statements and for me, Henry not being a shareholder, that has a few questioning his position. Anyhow ive decided to have a closer look at the numbers and its clear to see they are actually doing quite well numbers wise as i will outline below. The one thing ive taken from crunching the numbers is that the next 3 months will need to have some very big sales contract wins, if CY 19 revenue is to eclipse US 100 mill. Even bigger wins if they are to achieve EBIT positive. We know that larger size contracts/orders usually take months to see any revenue, so Q1 19 is going to need to be big sales wise, or another CR will be on the cards. Im guessing we will see very strong newsflow this month and next, which dare i say "could", end the downtrend.

    Year end 17, backlog was US$95 mill going into CY18
    Year end 18, backlog will be US$53-56 mill and US$98 mill revenue recieved.
    Clearly they have made sales progress. Each quarterly report below, the revenue and backlog disconnect was increasing. (Good)

    Q1. US 10 mill revenue and expected US68 mill of the 95 mill backlog to convert to revenue in CY18. This would have left just 27 mill backlog and CY 18 revenues of just US78 mill.
    Q2. YTD revenue of US33 mill and US 49 mill expected to convert to revenue from US 84 mill backlog leaving CY 18 revenue at US 82 mill and backlog at just US 33 mill.
    Q3. YTD revenue of US 62 mill and backlog still at US 80 mill. (REMEMBER WE STARTED THE YEAR AT US95MILL BACKLOG). US 33 mill expected to convert to revenue in CY 18 from backlog which makes full CY18 revenue US95 mill and backlog of US47 mill.

    With some wins in Q4, i think the final CY 18 revenue will be US 98 to 100 mill and backlog of US 53 to 56 mill ( which does not include any future ITEST contracts). To put this simply the company is growing at a fast pace, just not the shareprice.
    Q1 FLC.png q2 flc.png q3 flc.png
 
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