BWX is a screaming buy from here, page-18

  1. 42 Posts.
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    As I said when I first posted my thesis, on a company capped at $180m, it was too small / illiquid for the hedge funds to maintain their short position. A reduction in short interest from 13% to 11.78% over the last 1.5 weeks has resulted in the price jumping +15% (has been helped by the market rebound too!). Expect this to continue given the expensive borrow on the stock + continual positive sentiment.


    I've got +80% upside from here - I get to it by the company hitting the mid-point of FY19e EBITDA guidance of $29.5M, putting it on a multiple of 14x FY19e EBITDA (this multiple was the lower bound over the past 3 years) which gets you to an EV $413m! If you're a bull, you can take the FY19e EBITDA top guidance of £32m, and put this on a multiple of 18x (previous highest multiple was 22x 1yr-fwd EBITDA), which gets you to +150% upside. 


    Happy hunting.

 
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