good news week, page-23

John,

"This CVN vs POE share price comparison is non comparable" - INCORRECT.

Of course I am aware that POE (and CVN) have other assets, however I firmly believe that at the present time in the case of both those companies the market is ascribing little value, probably less than 10%. Furthermore imo the proportion of POE's value in "other" assets is probably much greater than in CVNs case. Therefore it still appears that CVN punters are prepared to pay "at least" 130% what POE are for the same common property. FOR ALL MATERIAL PURPOSES CVN AND POE MARKET CAPS ARE QUITE RELEVANTLY COMPARED.

Fiscal regime effect at 20,000 bopd is ABSOLUTELY not very similiar to Australia.

Australia offshore we have 40% PRRT, 30% normal company tax. Worst case JV left with 42% of profits.

Australia Onshore. Royalty less than 10%, 30% tax. JV left with greater than 63% of profit.

Thailand IF SRB "only" 60%. 60% SRB,12.5% royalty and 50% tax. JV is left with 17.5% of profit.

However it is worse than that, the SRB continues to increase until it reaches 75%, and because the SRB applies to the whole of production, as it increases the "marginal" SRB rate on "incremental" extra production is significantly greater than the actual rate applied to the whole production. Hence the JV take of profit on the next barrel at the 20,000 bopd level might be more like 15% rather than 17.5%

Furthermore, imo we are being rather trusting to be confident the SRB rate is 60% at 20,000 bopd, without even knowing what oil price assumption that was based on, as the SRB rate goes up with both production and poo.

Are you happy to accept 17.5% (perhaps 12 or 15%?) as similiar to 42% or to 63%? These are not similiar enough for me in my investment analysis. Suggest you do a teeny bit more homework before being so adamant other posters are so wrong.

As for the share register, I am not going down that path with you.

The mitigating factors for CVN are that both OPEX and CAPEX are low, there seems to be plenty of oil to find, and it appears to flow stably at high rates.

I am certainly not going to take the position that CVN is a short term buy. Long term yes, short term it would be a risky buy (except perhaps as a quick trade)imho.
EL