Just to add a little to this working of numbers that we have available. All in Australian dollars.
Last presentation at the AGM gave the following information.
* Stage 1 LOM total cash cost of about $430/t.
* Ramp up to 100% over 6 months where cost would drop from $750/t to $430/t.
* 4 months in (end of Nov conservatively) at 70% capacity and 'on track' with 'No material issues identified with plant, equipment or process during commissioning and ramp-up'.
* Assuming linear ramp up (cost graph in presentation is linearly decreasing), AJM would be at 85% capacity now (interestingly where PLS just stated they were at). 100% at the end of this month if things going as planned.
Under those assumption, with a little excel, I get this.
* Output and cost is always midpoint of end of last and the month in question. Kept cost at $750/t for first month.
* Total production for 2018 ends up at around 43kt (graph gets 50kt so pretty close).
* Revenue assumes ALL production sold. Might not be the case (see below).
How does this fit into the past shipping schedule/timeline?
Ship 1 - Lionergy - MV Clipper Tenacious - 5000t (9th Oct)
Ship 2 - ??? - Emerald Enterprise - 5000t (20th Oct)
According to the model above, on the 20th of Oct, I'd estimate that AJM inventory would be at roughly 12,000 tons. These early shipments fit in with the model ramp up for Aug, Sept, Oct.
End of November, confirmation of 70% nameplate output.
By end of December, AJM inventory would be at about 30,000t. Minus these two shipments for December, inventory down to 17,000t. Assuming only those four shipment were sold so far (rest in inventory), then using the linear cost decreasing model above (roughly),
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
0
Date
Shipment
Costs
Profit
1
9th Oct
5000
650
$1,950,000
2
20th Oct
5000
640
$2,000,000
3
6th Dec
5000
540
$2,500,000
4
28th Dec
8000
494
$4,368,000
5
$10,818,000
About $11 million in the kitty bank.
AJM Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
